What is a forecast?
A forecast estimates a future result from available data and assumptions. Purchasing teams use it for volume planning, budgets, capacity and supplier discussions.
Annual forecast = result to date / elapsed share of year
Common methods
Annualised run rate scales current results. Historical average smooths variation. Linear trend extends the long-term direction, while weighted methods give recent data more influence.
Example
If the result is 600,000 after nine months, a simple run rate is 600,000 / 9 × 12 = 800,000. It works best when activity is evenly distributed.
Review the forecast
Compare forecast and actual results, document material deviations and adjust the method. Seasonality, campaigns, contracts and price changes require separate judgement.
Calculate your own scenario
Use the free PurchaseKPI calculator and get the result immediately.
Forecast tool